ПОСЛЕДНИЕ СТАТЬИ В ФТ :: 31 МАРТА

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EDITOR’S CHOICE
Lex: Ukraine - Mar-31
Published: March 31 2009 14:42 | Last updated: March 31 2009 19:32
It takes some doing for an economy to shrink by a third. But that is what Ukraine managed to do in January and February compared with last year. Long the worst-managed economy among its central European peers, Ukraine has been savaged by the fall in steel and chemical prices, insolvent banks, and squabbles between Viktor Yushchenko, the president and Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister, a running stand-off that has paralysed policymaking. The country has a $16bn International Monetary Fund agreement to help it through – but disbursements have been held up by Ukraine’s inability to agree a budget. Without IMF money and the other funds that could follow, debt defaults are increasingly likely.
         Требуется приложить немалые усилия, чтобы экономика сократилась на треть.Но это именно то, что удалось Украине в январе и феврале по сравнению с прошлым годом.Экономика Украины, которая, из всех стран центральной Европы, давно управлялась наихудшим образом , пострадала от падения цен на сталь и химикаты, поглощения банков, и трений между президентом и премьером, что в свою очередь, вызвало паралич политической жизни страны.Страна получила помощь от МВФ на 16 млрд - но он был отложен вследствие неспособности Украины согласовать бюджет. Если не будет денег МВФ и других фондов, которые могут последовать за ним, угроза долгового дефолта значительно возрастает.
From financial crisis to economic crisis; from economic crisis to social crisis; and from there to political crisis: Ukraine’s woes are those of much of central Europe, only thrown into ghastly relief. Most forecasters expect the region’s economies to contract sharply this year, and possibly recover in 2010. That would follow the pattern of the most recent other emerging markets crisis, Asia’s meltdown in 1998. Emerging Asia, however, bounced back quickly thanks to steep devaluations, a growing world economy and western banks that were not on their knees.
     От финансового кризиса к экономическому кризису, от экономического к социальному, а отсюда к политическому: проблемы Украины напоминают проблемы центральной Европы, но только с мрачными перспективами. Большинство экспертов предсказывает, что экономики этого региона пострадают сильно в этом году, с вероятностью восстановления в 2010. Возможно развитие по модели самого последнего кризисв в Азии в 1998г. Однако в Азии ситуации восстановилась быстро благодаря резкой девальвации, растущей мировой экономике и также тому факту, что тогда западные банки не были поставлены на колени...

By Roman Olearchyk in Kiev
Published: March 31 2009 11:38 | Last updated: March 31 2009 22:50
В статье излагается то, что и нам хорошо известно - об выступлении президента в парламенте, его оценке глубины кризиса, о кредите МВФ и его отсрочке, о нежелании парл. сотрудничать с президентом в вопросах конституции и вопросах бюджета. Однако и Тимошенко отказалась урезать расходы и повысить тарифы на потребление, несмотря на сверхвысокие цены на газ. Однако она утверждает, что это союзники президента саботируют ее инициативы соответственно требованиям МВФ. Треть депозитов была снята со счетов, и европейские банки боятся, что этот кризис перекинется к ним, т.к. они контролируют 20% банков.Тимошенко ищет заем, но она не сможет его получить, пока не будет решен вопрос с МВФ.

Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine’s president, on Tuesday called for urgent economic and political reforms in response to a huge drop in the country’s output, and launched a bitter attack on the prime minister, his fierce rival, over her handling of the crisis.

Виктор Ющенко во вторник призвал к неотложным экономическим реформам в ответ на огромное падение ВВП, и резко отозвался об управлении экономикой во время кризиса премьер-министром, его жестким соперником.

Viktor Yushchenko, the Ukraine president, delivers his annual state of the nation address in parliament
In a state of the nation address to parliament, Mr Yushchenko claimed Ukraine’s gross domestic product had plunged by an annual 25 to 30 per cent in January and February. He urged lawmakers to press ahead with legislation to clear the way for an International Monetary Fund rescue package and constitutional reforms to clarify the division of power between the president and parliament.

The president slammed Yulia Tymoshenko, his flamboyant prime minister, saying the country had been “ill prepared to confront the crisis” and accusing the government of purposefully trying to “conceal” the slowdown by releasing economic data quarterly, rather than monthly.

His speech underscored the depth of the economic crisis facing Ukraine, the European country worst affected by the credit crunch, and the damage done to political stability by rifts in the Kiev leadership.

Parliament is most unlikely to co-operate with Mr Yushchenko’s constitutional reform plans. But the divided assembly is scheduled this week to consider legislation required to unfreeze a $16.4bn standby loan granted by the IMF last autumn. The Fund’s first $4.5bn tranche last autumn helped to stabilise Kiev’s shaky banking system and currency, which lost 40 per cent of its value last year. But further disbursements have been delayed because of IMF concerns over the size of Ukraine’s budget deficit and political infighting.

Mr Yushchenko has told parliament to bring the budget deficit down to less than 3 per cent. On Tuesday, parliament raised taxes on petrol, cigarettes and alcohol. But Ms Tymoshenko is refusing to cut spending or raise utility tariffs, insisting it would be too much of a burden on cash-strapped citizens. She says the president’s allies are sabotaging her initiatives to meet the IMF’s demands.

Ukraine has been hit hard by falling global trade, frozen credit and plunging prices for steel, the country’s main export. Output was also hit when Russia cut off natural gas supplies in January in a dispute over prices.

Unemployment has doubled to 1m since autumn and polls suggest that an increasing number of Ukrainians are sympathetic to anti-government protests About a third of household bank deposits have been withdrawn in the past six months, prompting fears that Kiev’s financial woes could affect western Europe. European banks control more than 20 per cent of Ukraine’s banking system.

In February, the owners of seven troubled banks appealed for state bail-outs, offering for their banks to be nationalised in return. But it remains uncertain how many of Ukraine’s 180 banks the cash-strapped government can save.

Alexander Valchyshen, head of research at Investment Capital Ukraine, a Kiev-based asset management firm, said: “Resuming co-operation with the IMF is very crucial to shore up confidence.”

Ms Tymoshenko has appealed to the world’s richest countries for a loan of up to $5bn (€3.8bn, £3.5bn) to cover the budget deficit. But Mr Valchyshen warned that lenders would not grant a loan until co-operation with the IMF was resumed.

“Meeting IMF requirements is a sign of prudence in fiscal and monetary policymaking. If this co-operation fails, then there is a risk that the government will turn to inflationary financing of the fiscal deficit,” covering the shortfall by printing currency, Mr Valchyshen added.